Haitong International cut its target price for NIO (09866.HK) to HK$32.7 from
HK$46.22 and maintained a MAINTAIN rating after issuing updated guidance. NIO
offered Q3 delivery guidance of 108k–111k units, up 24.0–27.5% YoY but only
0.3–3.1% QoQ. Revenue guidance of 33.29–34.05 bln yuan implies average selling
price up roughly 2–3% QoQ. Management expects H2 per-vehicle costs to rise about
2,000–3,000 yuan versus Q2, plans to hold Q3–Q4 auto gross margin near 18%, and
still sees full-year non-GAAP operating profit as positive; however, with thin
Q2 profitability, limited Q3 QoQ volume growth and rising costs, visibility on
sustained H2 profitability is low. Demand for ES8 and ES9 is relatively stable,
but NIO’s Q4 target of >40k units per month depends on recovery of LeDao issues
and a Firefly component ramp. Haitong trims its 2024 delivery estimate 7% to
424k units and now forecasts 2026–28 revenue of 123.9 bln, 155.0 bln and 155.2
bln yuan (revisions -2%, +13%, +13%).
