JPMorgan Chase's positioning monitoring shows that while the market appeared volatile over the past week, overall positioning changes were limited. Global hedge funds increased their total exposure on four of the past five trading days, rising a cumulative 1.3 standard deviations over the week, the largest increase since the end of June; however, net positions remained largely unchanged, with US-related positions still around the 40th percentile historically, not particularly crowded. Global hedge fund net positions are around the 40th-50th percentile over the past five years.
Meanwhile, retail and institutional sentiment began to cool. The US healthcare sector showed signs of a temporary peak: retail sentiment retreated from its highs, hedge funds sold off, and ETF inflows ceased to increase. Cyclical stocks, relative to defensive stocks, have room for recovery, especially the energy sector, which is being bought by hedge funds, but this is contingent on bond yields not rising rapidly enough to trigger significant risk aversion in the stock market. (The above views are from a JPMorgan Chase report dated September 7th.)
