On September 7th, the Buffett Indicator (CSI 300 market capitalization/GDP) rebounded to 92.59%, having maintained a narrow range of fluctuation recently. The equity risk premium (ERP) of the CSI 300 Index, a stock-bond ratio indicator, was 5.68%, matching the high point of August 15, 2025, and continuing to rise after breaking through the upper limit of its volatility over the past year. From a longer-term perspective, this indicator has gradually moved from the lower end of its five-year fluctuation range towards the middle, suggesting that the current advantage of stocks relative to government bond yields has increased, returning to a neutral level.
-------- Note: 1. The Buffett Indicator compares the total market capitalization of the stock market to GDP to determine whether the stock market is currently overvalued. Generally, 70-100% is considered a normal valuation; below this range is considered undervalued, and above is considered overvalued.
2. The risk premium (ERP) of the CSI 300 Index is mainly compared with the returns of the CSI 300 and the yield of government bonds. Statistics from the past 10 years show that this indicator has a clear inverse relationship with the stock index. Every time the stock market is in the bottom area, the risk premium exceeds 6%. That is, when ERP ≥ 6%, the stock market has investment value, while when ERP ≤ 4%, the stock market is often close to or at a stage high, the investment value is low, and there is even a risk of correction.
