Ross Harrison, a senior fellow at the Middle East Institute, said the deadlock between Washington and Tehran is unlikely to truly lead to a diplomatic solution as long as both the US and Iran believe they can gain more through pressure than through negotiation. He stated, “I think what we’re seeing right now is a negotiation happening on the battlefield, a different kind of negotiation. For real diplomatic negotiations to begin, I think both sides have to believe that the benefits of sitting down at the negotiating table outweigh the benefits of applying pressure on the battlefield.” Harrison noted that Iran has been working hard to comply with the conditions of the memorandum of understanding, which has become a significant bargaining chip for Iran to exert influence, while the US has been trying to weaken or even gradually strip Iran of this leverage.
He pointed out that Washington is currently more inclined to use economic means rather than military means to exert pressure, while Tehran is retaliating against being excluded from the situation. “What the Iranians are saying is: ‘No, we also have a say in how this conflict will develop.’ They may try to escalate the situation to escape what they believe Trump is trying to trap Iran in.” Harrison stated, “Unless the situation on the ground changes in the next day or two, I don’t see a real channel for negotiation.”
