Ross Harrison, senior fellow at the Middle East Institute, says the US‑Iran
standoff is unlikely to shift to a diplomatic resolution while both sides
believe coercion yields greater gains than talks. He characterizes current
interactions as a 'negotiation on the battlefield' and says true diplomacy
requires both sides to conclude that sitting down would produce better outcomes
than continued pressure. Harrison adds Iran has sought to honor conditions in a
memorandum and treats that document as a key leverage point, while Washington
has tried to weaken or strip that leverage. He says the US is now leaning toward
economic rather than military pressure; Tehran is pushing back to avoid being
sidelined and may escalate to escape what it sees as a trap set by Trump. Unless
the ground situation changes in the next day or two, Harrison says he does not
see a genuine negotiation channel opening.
