JPMorgan's Geopolitical Center believes that the market's sense of urgency regarding the situation has slightly decreased recently because more crude oil is passing through the Strait of Hormuz with US assistance, temporarily controlling oil prices. The team judges that Washington currently believes it can continue to "wait for Iran to make concessions" because Iranian oil exports are near zero, the rial has depreciated by nearly half against the dollar since January, and inflation is close to 90%, making Iran more eager than the US to return to the negotiating table. Two scenarios are possible in the short term:
1. There is a 55% probability of a "mutually reconciliation" agreement, with mediators facilitating a narrow-scope arrangement similar to previous memorandums of understanding; the near completion of a joint management mechanism for the Strait of Hormuz between Iran and Oman also provides a potential diplomatic outlet.
2. There is a 45% probability that the US will continue to delay until the November midterm elections, forcing Iran to accept conditions more favorable to the US; if this happens, Iran may use missiles and drones to attack the Strait of Hormuz and US military bases in the region to regain leverage in negotiations.
