Gartner predicts that the global ERP market will grow from $65.3 billion in 2024 to $126.1 billion in 2030, but new spending will be highly concentrated on AI agents. From 2026 to 2030, simple AI agent ERP and advanced/autonomous AI agent ERP are expected to grow by 66.3% and 95.0% respectively, while traditional ERP excluding generative AI will shrink by 30.1% during the same period.
A Bernstein report indicates that AI-native companies are entering the market through high-friction processes such as financial closing, accounts payable, revenue recognition, purchase requisitions, and HR services. These companies do not need to completely replace SAP or Oracle; by controlling the user interface, workflow orchestration, and task execution, they have the opportunity to capture the fastest-growing and most monetizable segment of the ERP market. Bernstein predicts that traditional vendors will still control the underlying core aspects such as transaction data, permissions, auditing, and compliance, while AI-native companies will handle upper-level interactions and execution, leading to a likely coexistence within the industry. For SAP, Oracle, and Microsoft, the long-term risk stems from ERP gradually relegating to the background, with customers accessing their data and functions through external AI agents.
