Goldman Sachs' Global Investment Research Commodities Team, citing NOAA's assessment, estimates that the current El Niño event has a greater than 90% probability of developing into a "Super El Niño" during the winter of 2026-2027. Super El Niño events have only occurred three times in the past 75 years, and the report's multi-model median forecast suggests that this round's intensity could break historical records.
Extreme rainfall and drought could simultaneously impact multiple major agricultural production areas. Goldman Sachs is particularly focused on sugar, as global sugar exports are highly concentrated in El Niño-sensitive regions such as south-central Brazil, India, and Thailand. Meanwhile, the Panama Canal handles approximately 10% of global grain trade and 17% of soybean trade, but Gatun Lake's water level has actually decreased during the current rainy season.
This means that weather risks could simultaneously reduce agricultural production and inter-regional transportation capacity. If the reservoirs are not adequately replenished before the start of the dry season from January to May, the Panama Canal may further restrict ship passage. The next phase requires monitoring the El Niño peak from December to February of the following year, the rainfall distribution in major production areas, and the rate of replenishment of the canal reservoirs.
