The Iranian leadership believes now may be the best time to escalate their confrontational stance, as the US midterm elections in November are approaching, and an unpopular war could damage the political interests of Trump and the Republican Party.
“All indications suggest we are at a critical juncture,” said Mohammad Ali Shabani, an Iran analyst. “If diplomatic efforts fail, I don’t think the Iranians will just wait to be attacked after the election.” Hamidreza Aziz, senior Iran analyst at the International Crisis Group, stated that Iran’s ballistic missile attack on two US warships marks a clear escalation of the situation. Previously, Iran had avoided attacking US naval vessels to avoid significant US casualties, but “clearly, those considerations have changed.” The subsequent US attack on three Iranian oil tankers, sinking one, demonstrates Washington’s seriousness regarding the Iranian attack. Aziz stated, “Both sides are drawing their own red lines and trying to push the other’s red lines as far back as possible.”
This also indicates a shift in Iran’s military capabilities. Aziz stated that before the outbreak of war, the US did not believe Iran was capable of precision strikes against US bases in the region. But in recent months, Iran has demonstrated this capability. In July, Iran attacked a U.S. military base in Jordan, killing two U.S. soldiers. Aziz stated that Iran may also gradually acquire the capability to precisely strike U.S. naval fleets in the future.
