Some Iranian leaders believe now is a good time to act, as Trump could potentially reignite the war after the midterm elections regardless. Several analysts suggest that if he unexpectedly wins the election, Trump will feel his policies have gained support; conversely, if he loses, he may feel he has little left to lose and thus continue pursuing his strategy.
However, Farzan Sabet, an Iran analyst at the Graduate Institute of International and Development Studies at the University of Frankfurt in Geneva, predicts that the deteriorating global economic situation will ultimately force the Trump administration to de-escalate tensions.
He says that although the US Navy's escort operations through the Strait of Hormuz have allowed some oil to be transported, global crude oil inventories are still not being replenished quickly enough, and natural gas and other important oil derivatives are also facing difficulties in transportation. These supply shortages could further impact the global economy.
“By then, I think both sides will eventually grope towards some kind of limited agreement, or a de facto agreement,” he says. “However, it shouldn't be interpreted as ‘a further expansion of the Memorandum of Understanding,’ but rather as a ‘watered-down version of the Memorandum of Understanding.’”
