JP Morgan says US economic and corporate fundamentals remain intact but several
near-term risks justify a more cautious stance. Key points: the Fed's September
meeting again carries a risk of a rate hike, with CPI the key data; investor
positioning shows no clear directional signal, implying elevated volatility over
the next 3–4 weeks; post-Labor Day corporate issuance typically rises and could
push credit spreads wider, weighing on equities; September is historically the
weakest month for the S&P 500; momentum strategies have retraced sharply since
June highs; and even very strong tech earnings may not be enough to sustain
gains in AI, storage and semiconductor stocks.
