The U.S. EIA said in its Short-Term Energy Outlook that Middle East oil
production is expected to rise in coming months as Strait of Hormuz flows
increase and alternative export routes outside the region are used. The agency
nevertheless assumes Middle East export constraints will persist through
year-end, keeping regional crude output below pre-conflict averages through Q1
2027. It projects Brent spot will average about $90/bbl in H2 2026 and, as 2027
production increases and inventories rebuild, decline to an average of $74/bbl
in 2027.
