The ECB is expected to deliver its second rate rise since the Iran war pushed
energy prices higher, as inflation remains above target amid unexpectedly strong
euro‑area growth. In a poll, all but one analyst forecast a 25bp increase in the
deposit rate to 2.50% on Thursday. New quarterly staff projections are expected
to bolster the case for further tightening, flagging stronger inflationary
pressure and faster growth. Policymakers are responding to CPI above 3% last
month, near a three‑year high and unlikely to fall sharply in the coming months.
Unlike the Fed and the Bank of England, the ECB already tightened in June and
shows little dissent ahead of this week’s move.
