Jinlianchuang estimates the reference crude average through Sept 10 (ninth
working day) at $92.87/bbl, a 5.89% increase, which implies a domestic gasoline
and diesel retail lift of 330 yuan/ton under the pricing formula. Under the
ten-working-day rule the current adjustment window is 24:00 on Sept 11.
Escalation of US–Iran tensions could push the actual retail increase toward ~400
yuan/ton; further conflict would likely sustain international oil gains and
trigger additional domestic retail upward adjustments, providing support to the
oil market.
