Goldman Sachs said in a Sept. 9 report that shareholder returns are likely to
increasingly driving South Korean equity performance, complementing earnings
growth and helping reverse perceptions of weak corporate capital returns. Policy
moves — a “corporate value enhancement” plan, dividend tax incentives and
proposed tax changes for buybacks — are shifting from voluntary disclosure
toward substantive incentives and stronger accountability for capital allocation
and payouts. On fundamentals, consensus earnings and free cash flow forecasts
have been revised up while corporate balance sheets retain ample cash,
supporting larger dividends and buybacks without materially pressing capex or
balance-sheet quality. Buybacks and treasury-stock cancellations are
accelerating and high-dividend opportunities are broadening. Goldman expects
aggregate dividends plus buybacks to rise sharply in 2026–27, lifting total
shareholder return to roughly 9% in 2026 and about 14% in 2027.
