1. DRAM prices have risen by over 600% year-on-year, and may approach 700% in the third quarter. For the year-on-year price increase to continue expanding in the fourth quarter, prices need to rise by approximately 70% quarter-on-quarter.
2. Although the overall supply and demand for DRAM has not changed significantly, given that the price growth rate is approaching its peak, the DRAM cycle is expected to enter its later stages in the fourth quarter of 2026.
3. This may dampen market sentiment towards semiconductor equipment stocks with high exposure to the memory business, but long-term structural demand driven by AI may still provide some support. (The above views are from a Morgan Stanley report dated September 8th.)