JPMorgan's Sustainable Investment Research team predicts that data centers will be a major driver of U.S. electricity demand growth in the coming years, potentially increasing from approximately 200 TWh in 2024 to 640 TWh in 2035, with about 60% of the new demand met by natural gas. Natural gas offers a stable power supply and relatively fast construction and approval processes, and is expected to remain the most common off-meter power (BTM) solution for data centers in the medium term.
Renewable energy and energy storage will expand their market share primarily through cost and construction speed. With declining battery costs, wind, solar, and energy storage combinations in some regions have approached fossil fuel costs, but supply chain concentration remains a constraint. Next-generation geothermal energy has significant long-term potential, with the U.S. Department of Energy estimating its market size could expand to approximately 100 GW by 2050. Meanwhile, nuclear power is the slowest to be deployed. BNEF predicts only 13.7 GW of new nuclear power in the U.S. over the next decade, with the power mix relying more on natural gas, renewable energy, and energy storage, with geothermal energy providing potential supplementation. Large-scale contributions from nuclear power are unlikely until after the mid-2030s.
