The IEA’s monthly report says this year’s global oil supply–demand gap will be
larger than previously expected, citing limited progress toward ending the Iran
conflict, which delays normalization of Middle East oil flows until 2027 and has
driven fuel prices sharply higher. Inventories have so far been the primary
market buffer; with cushions shrinking and the global refining system stretched
to its limits, resolving the Middle East conflict and the Russia-Ukraine war,
now in its fifth year, is more urgent to avoid further market tightening.
