Investors price roughly a 70% chance of a Fed hike next week, while a Sept 4–9
survey of 48 economists found only 13 expect a September increase and most
expect rates to be held unchanged through end-2027. Economists cited easing inf
and the approaching U.S. midterm elections as reasons to stand pat at the Sep
15–16 and Oct meetings. Yelena Shulyatyeva, senior U.S. economist at the World
Federation of Large Enterprises, expects holds in Sep, Oct and Dec but warned
any clear uptick in inf could force the FOMC to act regardless of election
timing. The divergence reflects unusually high uncertainty about near-term
policy direction under Chair Warsh.
