The Iran war has driven up diesel prices, increasing the economic appeal of Tesla's electric Semi truck to transportation companies. U.S. diesel prices have broken $6 per gallon for the first time in history, nearly double the level of a year ago, while reduced heavy crude oil supplies are further compressing diesel availability. Meanwhile, U.S. freight demand is finally emerging from its slump and beginning to recover, leaving transportation companies facing higher fuel costs. Morgan Stanley analyst Andrew Percoco stated that Tesla plans to produce 50,000 Semi trucks annually, with a potential annual sales revenue of approximately $15 billion at around $300,000 per truck. Compared to traditional trucks, the upfront cost of the electric Semi may be twice as high, but rising diesel prices help shorten the cost recovery period, and subsidies for electric trucks in some regions can also reduce procurement costs. Percoco stated that Tesla could generate approximately $12,000 to $18,000 in revenue per month from its Autopilot truck software alone, compared to approximately $100 per month for the current Full Self-Driving (FSD) feature in passenger cars. He estimates the Semi business has a potential value of up to $20 per share, implying a market capitalization of approximately $80 billion. However, Tesla's stock price has fallen by about 10% since the start of the war with Iran, underperforming the S&P 500 by about 20 percentage points, indicating that investors are currently more focused on AI-related opportunities such as autonomous driving than on traditional automotive businesses.
