The Iran war has pushed US diesel above $6/gal for the first time, roughly
double year-ago levels; heavy crude supply losses are further tightening diesel
availability while US freight demand is rebounding, increasing fuel costs for
shippers. Morgan Stanley analyst Andrew Percoco models Tesla producing 50,000
Semis/year at about $300,000 each, implying roughly $15bn of annual sales
potential. Electric Semis may carry roughly twice the upfront cost of
conventional trucks, but elevated diesel prices and regional EV-truck subsidies
shorten payback. Percoco estimates Tesla’s autonomous trucking software could
generate about $12k–$18k per vehicle per month versus roughly $100/month for
passenger FSD, and values the Semi business at up to $20/share (≈$80bn). Tesla
shares have fallen ~10% since the Iran war began, underperforming the S&P 500 by
about 20 percentage points, reflecting investor focus on autonomous/AI
opportunities over traditional auto exposure.
