Goldman Sachs raised its 12-month target price for Green Harmonic from RMB 186.7 to RMB 285.1, but maintained a "Neutral" rating:
1. The target price increase is primarily due to Goldman Sachs extending its valuation period to 2035 to incorporate the long-term growth potential of humanoid robots, rather than an upward revision of recent earnings. Goldman Sachs now projects global humanoid robot shipments to reach approximately 890,000 units by 2030 and 6.5 million units by 2035; Green Harmonic's revenue from humanoid robots is projected to reach RMB 5.7 billion in 2030 and RMB 30.5 billion in 2035, accounting for 84% and 94% of total revenue, respectively.
2. However, the company faces short-term profit margin pressure: The company is adopting a more aggressive price reduction strategy to consolidate its market share, while rapid capacity expansion is increasing depreciation costs. Therefore, Goldman Sachs has lowered its earnings forecasts for 2026-2030 and expects gross margins to decline to approximately 30% in the long term. 3. Goldman Sachs believes the company has a clear leading advantage in the field of harmonic reducers for humanoid robots, but its 12-month forward P/E ratio has reached 256 times, higher than its historical average of approximately 183 times. Therefore, even with a significant increase in the target price, the rating remains neutral. (The above views are from Goldman Sachs' report dated September 10.)
