Citigroup: European Gas Pricing About 30% Higher Than Models, Market Bets on a Worse Winter. Citigroup's commodities strategy team estimates the probability-weighted fair value (FTV) price for European natural gas this winter to be around €61/MWh, si

2026-09-14

Citigroup: European Gas Pricing About 30% Higher Than Models, Market Bets on a Worse Winter. Citigroup's commodities strategy team estimates the probability-weighted fair value (FTV) price for European natural gas this winter to be around €61/MWh, significantly lower than the market-priced €81/MWh at the time of the report's release. Based on this fair value, the current pricing premium is approximately 33%, indicating that the market is placing a high weight on low inventory levels, Middle East LNG transport risks, and a harsh European winter.