Galaxy Securities expects El Niño conditions in the equatorial central‑eastern
Pacific by May 2026, peaking in Nov-Dec and waning through spring–summer 2027.
Projected climate patterns include heavier rainfall on South America’s west
coast, drier conditions in Southeast Asia and drought in southern Africa. So far
there have been no large-scale weather-induced mine shutdowns. The firm says El
Niño is likely to produce localized, short-duration disruptions for non-ferrous
metals and will tend to amplify existing supply‑demand tensions rather than
serve as a decisive market driver.