Morgan Stanley maintains its 3Q26 iPhone production forecast at 54 million units, a 4% increase quarter-over-quarter and a 2% decrease year-over-year. Its initial 4Q26 forecast is 73 million units, a 35% increase quarter-over-quarter and a 4% decrease year-over-year. Full-year 2026 production is projected to reach 235 million units, a 3% increase year-over-year.
The 4Q year-over-year decline is primarily due to product release schedules. Morgan Stanley expects 71 million units of the new generation iPhone series to be produced in the second half of 2026, a 21% decrease year-over-year. One fewer SKU will be released during this period compared to the previous year, and the standard iPhone 18 is planned to be delayed until the first half of 2027. The iPhone Duo is expected to produce 7 million units in the second half of the year. Its starting price of $1999, lower than the market's previous expectations of $2300 or more, is beneficial to production performance, but the supply chain is still resolving production issues, thus delaying the launch by one month.
