Carson Group analyzed the time between the first rate hikes of two consecutive Federal Reserve rate hike cycles since 1988. The previous six intervals were 5.7 years, 3.1 years, 2.3 years, 5.0 years, 11.5 years, and 6.3 years, averaging approximately 5.7 years and with a median of approximately 5.35 years. The shortest interval was 2.3 years from 1997 to 1999, while the longest was 11.5 years from 2004 to 2015.
The current rate hike interval of 4.5 years is shorter than the previous average, but it is not uncommon historically: it is longer than the two rapid restarts in the 1990s that were only 2-3 years apart, and significantly shorter than the 11.5-year interval after the financial crisis. Including this current interval, the average interval of the seven rate hike cycles since 1988 is approximately 5.5 years, with the median dropping to 5 years.
