JPMorgan Chase plotted a scatter plot of the months of Federal Reserve rate hikes and cuts since 1971, based on the ISM Manufacturing Employment Index and Price Paid Index at that time. In August 2026, the employment index was 51.2 and the price index was 71.1, placing it in the "employment expansion, high cost pressure" zone. Within this zone, the brown dots representing rate hikes significantly outnumbered the blue dots representing rate cuts. This suggests that, given the current combination of continued expansion in manufacturing employment and high input prices, rate hikes are more consistent with historical reaction patterns.
