Huatai Securities reports that in August peak travel the big three carriers (Air
China, China Eastern, China Southern) plus Spring Airlines and Juneyao saw ASK
+5.2% YoY and RPK +7.6% YoY; load factor rose 2ppt to a record 88.8% and ticket
pricing showed some improvement. However, July–August domestic fares including
fuel surcharges rose only 1.0% YoY—extreme weather and demand/capacity
mismatches limited pricing and weakened oil-price pass-through. Huatai says a
sector rebound await lower oil prices; monitor high-frequency Mid-Autumn
and National Day travel data. It expects cautious capacity deployment in Q4,
which could support YoY revenue performance, and remains constructive on a
mid-to-long-term recovery in the transport sector.
