According to the Washington Post, almost every indicator points to the United States being at a disadvantage in the war with Iran.
First, in early March, US President Trump stated that the US had "won" in the war with Iran, but still needed to "finish the job." Months later, with escalating regional conflict and diplomatic stall, this job remains unfinished and its prospects bleak. Trump has repeatedly hinted that Iran wants a deal. However, this optimistic view is inconsistent with the situation, and there is little evidence that Tehran desires a deal.
Second, while the US has achieved some military successes in the war, overall, the conflict has been a strategic disaster for the US. The fighting has exposed serious vulnerabilities in the US military, leading to troop dispersal, costing the US approximately $38.1 billion to date, and triggering a global energy crisis. The war is extremely unpopular among US voters, with a growing number of Republicans in Congress voting to end the conflict; one Republican congressman even proposed impeaching Defense Secretary Hergses because of the war.
Finally, the US has suffered almost complete failure on key strategic objectives. One is that Iran's proxy network has not been destroyed, and the Houthi rebels made significant territorial gains in Yemen this month, seizing the port of Mocha and Pérem Island, effectively controlling the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. Second, Iran's missile and drone capabilities have not been destroyed. While Heghes claimed in April that Iran's missile program "had been destroyed," Iran continues to attack regional targets with missiles and drones and has resumed ballistic missile production in underground facilities. Third, the regime change has backfired; despite the assassinations of Khamenei and other high-ranking officials, the regime remains intact and even more consolidated. Fourth, Iran's nuclear program has not been eliminated; Iran still possesses approximately 440 kilograms of highly enriched uranium, the exact location of which is unknown. Fifth, the core of the war has shifted to the struggle over the Strait of Hormuz. Before the war, approximately 20 million barrels of oil passed through the Strait of Hormuz daily; currently, only about 10 million barrels pass through, one-fifth of the pre-war level. Iran has demonstrated its ability to close the Strait for an extended period.
