The Washington Post reports that almost all indicators point to a strategic
disadvantage for the US in its conflict with Iran. President Trump declared in
early March the US had “won” but still needed to “finish the job”; the paper
says that task remains incomplete and prospects are poor. The conflict has
exposed US force vulnerabilities and dispersed deployments, cost roughly $38.1bn
to date, and contributed to a global energy squeeze. US military gains are
limited and the campaign is politically unpopular at home, with growing
congressional Republican support for ending the conflict and at least one
Republican lawmaker proposing impeachment of the defense secretary over the war.
Key strategic objectives have largely failed, the paper says: Iran’s proxy
network remains intact; Houthi forces in Yemen recently seized Mocha port and
Perim Island, effectively controlling the Bab al-Mandeb; Iranian missile and
drone capabilities continue to be used against regional targets despite US
claims in April that Iran’s missile program had been destroyed, and Iran has
resumed ballistic missile production in underground facilities; regime-change
aims have backfired—despite the killing of senior figures including Khamenei,
Tehran’s leadership is intact and more consolidated; and Iran still holds about
440 kg of highly enriched uranium, location uncertain. The contest has shifted
to control of key straits: flows through the Strait of Hormuz have fallen from
roughly 20 mln bpd pre-conflict to about 10 mln bpd, and Iran has demonstrated
the ability to close the strait for extended periods.
