Northeast Securities said in a Sept. 20 research note the Fed’s September hike
has been delivered; the dot plot shows Fed officials generally expect one more
hike in 2026, then a period of unchanged policy. With the US economy not
overheating, the firm views recent moves as precautionary and warns the risk of
a December hike should not be underestimated under current guidance. Based on US
wage growth and housing, Northeast Securities sees limited endogenous inflation
pressure and does not expect a sustained, rapid hiking cycle—favoring a
2016-style outcome of a modest move followed by an extended pause.
