State elections in Berlin and Mecklenburg‑Vorpommern are scheduled for the 20th.
A ZDF poll on the 17th put CDU support in Mecklenburg‑Vorpommern at 6%, just
above the 5% threshold for parliamentary representation; falling below 5% would
be "a nightmare" and could be the final straw to topple MERZ. The risk follows
AfD's roughly 44% win in Saxony‑Anhalt two weeks ago, where the CDU's vote share
plunged to about 17%.