Geopolitical Conflicts
1. US-Iran Conflict: Geopolitical conflicts are the core focus of this year's UN General Assembly, with the US-Iran war considered paramount. Trump and the Iranian president will speak on Tuesday and Wednesday respectively. Trump has previously stated his openness to meeting with the Iranian president. Attention should be paid to the positions of Iran, Israel, Gulf states, and other relevant countries, as well as whether the US and Iranian presidents will meet.
2. Russia-Ukraine Conflict: The Russia-Ukraine conflict remains a major focus of this UN General Assembly. Attention should be paid to whether new ceasefire or negotiation initiatives will emerge, how European countries will articulate their positions on Ukraine, and what kind of international support Ukraine hopes to gain. Furthermore, given the limited diplomatic resources of various countries, attention should be paid to how Ukraine will ensure that discussions on the Russia-Ukraine conflict are not overshadowed by the Middle East situation.
3. Israeli-Palestinian Conflict: Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu is expected to speak on Wednesday. Palestinian President Abbas, due to the US visa refusal, will speak via video for the second consecutive year. Attention should be paid to how Netanyahu uses the UN platform to cultivate an image of a "tough leader" to garner votes in the domestic elections, and whether representatives from multiple countries will again stage a collective protest and walk out. 4. Houthi-Saudi Conflict: The Houthi rebels have recently intensified their attacks on Saudi Arabia and seized strategic islands near the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, allowing Iran and its allies to influence two key global chokepoints and further destabilizing the Middle East. The possibility of the US being drawn into the Yemen conflict warrants attention.
Global Supply Chain Issues
1. Energy Chokepoint Disruptions: The simultaneous disruption of the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab el-Mandeb Strait has severely impacted the global energy supply chain. Whether world leaders will propose concrete "coalition of escort" or "energy corridor" plans during the UN General Assembly needs to be monitored.
2. Escalating Food Security Crisis: The disruption of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz, coupled with the disruption of Black Sea grain exports due to the Russia-Ukraine conflict, has exacerbated the food security crisis facing some countries. Whether the UN will promote a "humanitarian fertilizer corridor" circumventing sanctions is crucial; this is a key indicator of whether the General Assembly can produce substantial results.
Artificial Intelligence Governance
1. AI Governance Differences: Two AI conferences will be held on the 23rd: the UN Security Council meeting on artificial intelligence and security, and a high-level AI meeting convened by the US. These two meetings represent completely different governance paths. The Security Council meeting focused on AI security risks, while the US-hosted meeting emphasized AI partnerships with the US. This "divided" approach is noteworthy. It's also worth noting that US-hosted AI giants calling for a "slowdown in AI development" are facing conspiracy charges.
UN Secretary-General Re-election
1. Guterres' Term Enters Countdown: The term of current UN Secretary-General António Guterres will end on December 31st this year. The current suspense lies in whether the five permanent members of the Security Council can reach an agreement on the candidate, or whether it will be deadlocked due to veto power politics.
