Societe Generale's model shows an 88% probability of Democrats winning the House of Representatives; a 54% probability of Republicans retaining the Senate; a 44% probability of Democrats winning both houses; and a 43% probability of a "divided Congress" (Democrats controlling the House, Republicans controlling the Senate), both almost equally likely.
Senate: Currently, Republicans control the Senate 53-47. In this election with 35 seats up for grabs, Republicans need to retain 22 seats, while Democrats only need a net gain of 4 seats to overturn the outcome. The market forecasts favor Democratic victories in Texas and Alaska more than Societe Generale's model.
Policy Impact: If Democrats control both houses, budget appropriations and presidential nomination confirmations (officials, judges, etc., require Senate approval) will be more difficult, increasing the risk of a government shutdown due to lack of funds. In a divided Congress, the debt ceiling (the legal limit on how much the government can borrow) will need to be negotiated, tariff policy will remain largely unchanged, but the Democratic-controlled House will increase oversight and investigation of the government.
Voter concerns: Polls show Democrats leading Republicans by 24 percentage points on healthcare, and also leading on the deficit, cost of living, economy, immigration, and foreign policy; Republicans lead by 2 percentage points on artificial intelligence. Energy prices, tariffs, data centers, and AI are key issues in this election.
