Copper: As of the week ending September 18, China's copper inventory decreased by 0.3 million tons, below the 5-year seasonal average of approximately 1.7 million tons. However, with LME copper falling back to around $14,000/ton, onshore buying in China rebounded, and the Yangshan copper premium rebounded significantly to over $120/ton.
Aluminum: Last week, inventory decreased by 63,000 tons, bringing total inventory down to approximately 800,000 tons, returning to historically normal levels. However, China's aluminum production in August was 4 million tons, and in the first eight months it was 31 million tons, an annualized total of approximately 46.5 million tons, exceeding the 45 million ton capacity ceiling. This unexpected supply may suppress short-term aluminum prices.
Zinc: After two weeks of significant inventory reduction, zinc inventory has returned to its seasonal trend, with total inventory at 214,000 tons, still the highest since 2022. JPMorgan Commodities Research expects continued Chinese exports to ease market tensions, and zinc prices may fall to around $3,500/ton by the end of the year.
