1. Goldman Sachs expects SMIC's revenue in Q3 2026/Q4 2026 to remain at the high level of Q2 2026, with Q2 2026 revenue increasing by 12% QoQ and 27% YoY. Generative AI demand supports both advanced nodes (domestic AI chips) and mature nodes (analog/power ICs), with capacity utilization expected to exceed 95% in Q2 2026.
2. Q2 2026 revenue increased by 20% QoQ, with the top ten global wafer foundries showing the fastest growth (average +11.5%), maintaining its position among the top three globally. Strong AI demand in China and diversified customer supply chains are driving the company's continued capacity expansion.
3. The total potential market size for AI chips in China is projected to grow at a CAGR of 69% from 2025 to 2030, requiring SMIC to allocate 54%-71% of its capital expenditure to 7nm and advanced nodes. Domestic cloud vendors' capital expenditure is expected to increase by 80%/20%/18% YoY from 2026 to 2028E. Global industry capacity is being dominated by AI, benefiting its non-AI and mature node sectors.
4. New wafer pricing will take effect in Q3 2026, supporting gross margins. Goldman Sachs maintains its "Buy" rating, with a target price of HK$153 for H shares (80.7x 2028E P/E discount) and a target price of RMB 257.9 for A shares (a 196% premium over H shares). (Goldman Sachs report, September 21)
