BofA expects the ECB to raise rates 25bp in December, arguing a fresh energy
shock will keep euro-area inflation above the ECB’s target for longer. Recent
European gas and oil price gains and persistent geopolitical tensions—including
the Iran conflict—could keep energy markets tight through the winter demand
peak. BofA says growth may hold but will likely soften, doubts significant
second‑round effects have emerged, and notes the ECB could move in October only
if inflation prints come in materially higher.
