1. Data shows the bond market's "VIX" surged: The MOVE index jumped 19% last week, the largest weekly gain since April 2025 and the third largest weekly gain since the 2022 bear market. This index measures the volatility of 2-year, 5-year, 10-year, and 30-year US Treasury yields and is known as the "VIX of the bond market."
2. Yields continue to hit new highs: The 10-year US Treasury yield rose 17 basis points last week to 5.17%, the highest since June 2007; the 30-year yield rose 16 basis points, breaking through 5.50%, the first time since June 2004.
3. Crisis-level comparison: During the week of the banking crisis in March 2023, three regional banks collapsed, and the MOVE index surged by 29%. Current volatility in the US Treasury market is approaching crisis levels, indicating that the bond market is undergoing a dramatic repricing.
