1. Goldman Sachs initiates coverage of Geely Automobile with a "Buy" rating and a 12-month discounted cash flow (DCF) target price of HK$24, implying approximately 52% upside from the current price.
2. Key Assessment: Geely's growth engine is shifting from the domestic market to overseas markets. The company's total sales are projected to increase from 3 million vehicles in 2025 to 5.4 million vehicles in 2030, placing it among the top five global automakers. Net profit is expected to rise from RMB 17 billion to RMB 42 billion during the same period, with overseas business contributing significantly more than 84% of net profit, up from 31%.
3. Specifically regarding exports, Goldman Sachs projects Geely's overseas sales to increase from 420,000 vehicles in 2025 to 2.7 million vehicles in 2030, a more than six-fold increase in five years, with its share of total sales rising from 14% to 50%. This forecast was already realized in the first half of 2026—exports reached 474,000 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 158%.
4. Unlike most Chinese automakers that choose greenfield factory construction, Geely's overseas expansion follows a "joint venture for distribution channels" approach to offset EU tariff barriers. At the product level, plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) are the primary focus, and Geely has narrowed the technological gap with BYD in the PHEV field from 9 months to 5 months. (Goldman Sachs report, September 28)
