1. Goldman Sachs released a report tracking the Chinese liquor market, with key conclusions including: While population movement increased during the Mid-Autumn Festival, overall demand for liquor remained cautious, and the industry is still in a destocking phase.
2. On the distribution channel side, retail sales were weak, with many retailers clearing out inventory; distributor sales were flat to slightly down. Overall, cash collection was slower than in previous years, with only Moutai reaching over 80%, and Yanghe below 60%, reflecting a pragmatic, non-forced inventory-pushing strategy among liquor companies, prioritizing opening and consumption.
3. On the inventory side, retail inventory returned to a healthy level of 1-2 months, but some brand distributors still had 3-6 months' worth of inventory, indicating that destocking remains a key focus this year. On the price side, the wholesale price of Feitian Moutai remained stable at 1710-1730 yuan, while Wuliangye's price dropped to 770 yuan in some regions. Mid-to-low-end brands saw slight price softening due to banquet promotions.
4. Overall, Moutai showed the strongest resilience among high-end liquors, while demand in the mass-market price segment remained relatively stable. Industry recovery still depends on improved demand. (Goldman Sachs report, September 28)
