Talha Abdulrazak, a Middle East strategy and security expert, stated that the US and Iran are not following the same timeline in diplomatic negotiations.
He said, “The US wants substantial concessions from Iran in the nuclear negotiations, while Iran has indicated that while they are not necessarily opposed to it, they first need to see goodwill from the US, including unfreezing assets, easing sanctions, and lifting the naval blockade.” Abdulrazak believes this is “not an acceptable starting point” for the US. He said that as the dominant party, the US needs to significantly alter the strategic landscape for any agreement to be seen as a victory domestically. Iran’s goals are lower: “Iran simply needs to keep its regime intact and continue to survive.”
He stated that this imbalance benefits Tehran to some extent, but it doesn’t mean Iran is not under pressure. Iran is feeling significant economic pressure and political isolation from the US.
Abdulrazak also stated that the US midterm elections have limited Washington’s room for maneuver. He believes that after the midterm elections, “the US will have greater room for maneuver, potentially choosing to escalate the conflict or de-escalate the situation,” and returning to arrangements similar to memorandums of understanding.
