Goldman estimates Gulf oil exports, including covert shipments, doubled in
September and have returned to the 2025 average. Saudi Arabia led the rebound,
with exports rising above the 2025 average; Iran recorded no seaborne crude
exports in September. Analyst Eamonn Sheridan said the data reinforces a
supply-restoration theme that pushed oil prices lower yesterday. Goldman’s
August report warned rising covert ship movements could cap crude upside even if
Middle East disruptions persist; the latest flows support that view. The report
also noted that if disruptions continue, refined products and European gas could
tighten more than crude, consistent with current diesel-supply concerns.
