The Yemeni government has accused the Houthis of converting Iranian air defense weapons into loitering cruise missiles, warning of a potential threat to civilian air traffic over Yemen and the Red Sea region.
What does this mean for the Red Sea situation and the Yemeni war?
Regarding the regional aviation industry, Sai Ahmed, chief analyst at StrategicAero Research, stated that the near-total halt in air traffic around Yemen reduces the likelihood of missiles accidentally hitting passenger planes. However, Houthi missiles are being launched towards Saudi Arabia, where commercial aviation activities exist, creating a dilemma for Saudi Arabia between maintaining open airspace and jeopardizing security.
He also pointed out that the Houthis have demonstrated their ability to strike targets at long range. Last year's attack near Tel Aviv airport is a case in point. He stated, "Any missiles possessed by the Houthis could easily destroy ships at will in the narrower waterway of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait." This means that the Houthis' upgraded long-range missile and anti-ship capabilities could further impact shipping security in the Red Sea.
Yemeni military analyst Qumaim stated that the new missile adds new operational capabilities to the southern Red Sea theater and could be part of Iran's pressure on regional airspace and energy supply chains.
Analyst Al-Demani pointed out that both the Yemeni government and Saudi Arabia, given their "isolation" in terms of regional and international allies following the renewed war in Yemen, are keen to strengthen their awareness of regional security risks. If the capabilities of the new cruise missile are demonstrated, it will certainly reshape the balance of power in the Red Sea and favor non-state actors.
