According to Business Insider, the current US stock market IPO landscape is extremely distorted, as evidenced by two recent IPO news stories.
On Monday evening local time, Reuters obtained a leaked IPO prospectus from Anthropic. Although Anthropic hasn't formally filed, everything appears to be progressing at full speed, with social media buzzing with its astonishing financial figures.
However, less than 12 hours later, smart ring maker Oura made the opposite choice: it will not be IPOing this year, citing an overly volatile macroeconomic environment and market conditions. Oura boasts 5.7 million paid subscribers, projects 90% revenue growth this year, and remains profitable. That's not a bad performance.
So why is one rapidly growing company hitting the brakes while another is forging ahead? The difference lies in an increasingly undeniable truth: in today's stock market, it's either AI or you're left behind.
It's worth noting that Holtec Nuclear and Bamboo Insurance have also postponed their IPO plans in the past two weeks. Both companies made their decisions days before their expected pricing and are not purely AI companies.
This divergence extends far beyond the IPO market. The S&P 500 remains near all-time highs, but its seemingly solid surface masks a volatile reality. While a small group of AI-related giants props up the index, the rest of the market has been battered by rising oil prices and soaring bond yields.
Data recently compiled by Goldman Sachs indicates that the median stock price in the S&P 500 is trading 16% below its 52-week high. This is the weakest breadth since the dot-com bubble, with the gap between market winners and other stocks reaching historical extremes.
The real question is whether this is good or bad for the market's long-term health. The answer will depend on whether the macro storm finally begins to subside. Anthropic's upcoming IPO will be the next major test, revealing just how much top-down AI activity the market can withstand.
