SMBC Nikko economist Yoshimasa Maruyama said the Bank of Japan’s September
meeting minutes did not contain sufficiently hawkish views to support
expectations of consecutive rate hikes. The minutes flagged financial
conditions—noting corporate behavior and asset prices—as a key determinant of
future policy, implying the BOJ could avoid relying solely on the policy rate
when deciding further tightening. OIS price roughly a 20% chance of an October
hike and an 82% chance of a December move.
