Goldman Sachs said a US ban on diesel exports would hit Latin America hardest.
Ecuador, Chile, Mexico and Peru import more than 50% of their diesel consumption
from the US; a sudden US cutoff could reduce Latin American GDP by about 1%,
though inventories and increased exports from other regions would mitigate the
impact. Goldman notes the diesel market is global and supply could reallocate
quickly, so the primary global effect would be higher diesel prices. It
estimates each week of a US diesel export ban would lower US retail diesel by
roughly $0.25/gal and would trim US headline inflation by about 2–3 bps after a
month.
