Huatai Securities said September nonfarm payrolls missed expectations, reducing
the urgency for consecutive Fed hikes in October. The three‑month average of
payroll gains is +51k, near balanced employment; unemployment remains low,
implying a still‑robust but not overheated labor market. September weakness and
slower wage growth has trimmed real income and may curb consumption after
August's strength. NFIB hiring intentions point to a likely soft October
payrolls followed by a rebound. In its baseline scenario Huatai expects the Fed
to skip a consecutive October hike and raise rates again in December.
