The Fed and ECB will publish minutes from last month’s meetings next week. Both
raised rates in September citing rising inflation pressure; the Fed minutes
could show many policymakers were deeply worried about price trends and expected
at least one more hike before year-end. Weaker-than-expected US nonfarm
payrolls, soft wage growth, a government PCE revision showing slightly lower
inflation YTD, and recent turmoil in French financial markets have collectively
reduced near-term urgency for further tightening and raised the bar for an
October hike. Minutes may recall officials’ hawkish September stance, but
subsequent data strengthen arguments for patience; services inflation could keep
a December hike on the table, though the Fed will likely need clearer evidence
of renewed price pressure before moving again.
