On October 1st, the yield on the ICE Bank of America U.S. High Yield Bond Index rose to 8.22%, above the 12-month average of 7.08%; the option-adjusted spread widened from 2.93% on September 25th to 3.24%, an increase of 31 basis points in four trading days. By October 2nd, both had fallen back to 8.13% and 3.10% respectively, but financing conditions remained significantly tight.
However, the 8.22% yield is not entirely due to credit risk; approximately 3.24 percentage points represent additional compensation relative to U.S. Treasuries, and this is still lower than the long-term average spread of 5.23% from 1997 to 2025. The real pressure comes from lower-rated issuers: the size of maturing U.S. high-yield bonds will increase from $68.5 billion in 2027 to $314.1 billion in 2029, and if some CCC-rated bonds maturing in 2027-2028 are refinanced at current levels, coupon rates could nearly double.
