Vietnam's real GDP grew 10.4% year-on-year in the third quarter of 2026, higher than the previous quarter's 8.8% (revised upward from the initial estimate of 8.1%), significantly exceeding the 8.7% forecast in a Bloomberg survey and Goldman Sachs' 8.0% prediction. After seasonal adjustment, real gross value added (GVA) grew 3.8% quarter-on-quarter, the same growth rate as the previous quarter.
The contribution of industry and services to the overall GVA quarter-on-quarter growth was roughly equal, both at 1.6 percentage points. The service sector's contribution rose to 1.6 percentage points from 1.0 percentage point in the previous quarter, the highest level since the fourth quarter of 2021. Among the service sector sub-sectors, financial services contributed the most to the quarter-on-quarter growth, followed by wholesale and retail trade.
In September, Vietnam's overall industrial output grew 4.7% month-on-month after seasonal adjustment, a significant rebound from -0.2% in August. Year-on-year, industrial output growth accelerated further to 16.7% from 13.5% in the previous month. Compared to the previous month, the food manufacturing industry made the most significant contribution to overall industrial output growth, followed by the textile and rubber and plastics products industries.
(The above content is from Goldman Sachs' views on October 5th and is for reference only, not investment advice.)
